Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 2.310733 2.446714 2.594750 2.769542 2.972589 3.204077 3.492689
2025-08-31 2.158542 2.326482 2.517074 2.753440 3.044994 3.402419 3.891234
2025-09-07 2.073782 2.263850 2.486248 2.772664 3.143573 3.627852 4.350964
2025-09-14 1.954759 2.148043 2.377856 2.679907 3.081875 3.626522 4.486152
2025-09-21 1.892390 2.094460 2.338978 2.667774 3.119311 3.758944 4.842508
2025-09-28 1.823204 2.027551 2.277761 2.619519 3.099361 3.801530 5.058170
2025-10-05 1.805608 2.022812 2.293694 2.672987 3.225102 4.078917 5.768609
2025-10-12 1.799846 2.031782 2.326655 2.750703 3.393308 4.454003 6.850789
2025-10-19 1.761260 1.996318 2.298268 2.738900 3.422011 4.594113 7.485014
2025-10-26 1.732074 1.971515 2.282433 2.743237 3.475441 4.787748 8.394111
2025-11-02 1.684440 1.920621 2.228677 2.688211 3.426084 4.774039 8.672726
2025-11-09 1.651170 1.887524 2.197856 2.665301 3.427900 4.862907 9.380211
2025-11-16 1.619809 1.857091 2.171013 2.649199 3.444011 4.994247 10.457068
2025-11-23 1.591699 1.829910 2.147340 2.636101 3.463433 5.136647 11.839311
2025-11-30 1.575784 1.818358 2.144768 2.654824 3.540486 5.428838 14.873037
2025-12-07 1.529057 1.763737 2.079195 2.571354 3.423567 5.229933 14.020600
2025-12-14 1.507201 1.742407 2.060434 2.561074 3.441754 5.372755 16.494838
2025-12-21 1.476379 1.708059 2.021941 2.517567 3.394162 5.339190 17.315120
2025-12-28 1.474849 1.713678 2.040972 2.567052 3.527900 5.822186 30.644882
2026-01-04 1.479323 1.727560 2.072359 2.638514 3.714563 6.550095 NaN
2026-01-11 1.461008 1.709125 2.055363 2.628140 3.732452 6.754463 NaN
2026-01-18 1.447463 1.697012 2.047321 2.632428 3.781806 7.093449 NaN
2026-01-25 1.420156 1.664949 2.008554 2.582389 3.709340 6.954052 NaN